In terms of the Quantity Theory, a “Hard Landing” occurs when: The Fed decreases Y and P increases The Fed decreases M and Y increases The Fed decreases V and P increases The Fed decreases M and Y decreases
The correct answer and explanation is:
Correct Answer: The Fed decreases M and Y decreases
Explanation:
The Quantity Theory of Money is captured by the equation:
$$
MV = PY
$$
Where:
- M = Money supply
- V = Velocity of money
- P = Price level
- Y = Real output (Real GDP)
According to this theory, the total amount of money spent in an economy (MV) equals the nominal GDP (PY). The theory often assumes V is constant and Y is at or near full employment, meaning changes in M (money supply) primarily affect P (price level).
However, this dynamic shifts when the economy is not at full capacity or when monetary policy shocks are aggressive. A “hard landing” refers to a situation in which central bank policies aimed at controlling inflation — such as decreasing the money supply (M) — lead to a sharp economic slowdown or even a recession (fall in Y), rather than just reducing inflation (P).
In this context, if the Federal Reserve (Fed) significantly decreases the money supply (M), and as a result, real output (Y) also decreases, this indicates a hard landing. This outcome suggests that the monetary contraction was too severe, tightening financial conditions excessively. The reduced availability of money slows down consumer spending, investment, and overall economic activity, leading to job losses and lower output.
This is in contrast to a “soft landing,” where the Fed manages to reduce inflation (P) without causing a significant drop in output (Y).
Thus, the correct answer — “The Fed decreases M and Y decreases” — represents a textbook example of a hard landing as explained by the Quantity Theory of Money and its practical implications in monetary policy.