Thinking that our premonitions correlate with events represents
-a representative heuristic.
-an availability heuristic.
-an illusory correlation.
-the overconfidence phenomenon.
The correct answer and explanation is:
Correct Answer: An illusory correlation.
Explanation (300 Words):
Thinking that our premonitions or gut feelings correlate with actual events — for instance, believing that thinking about a friend causes them to call — is an example of an illusory correlation. This psychological phenomenon occurs when people perceive a relationship between two variables (such as thoughts and events) even when no actual relationship exists.
Illusory correlation is a cognitive bias where our minds mistakenly associate two unrelated occurrences. This often happens because of the brain’s tendency to look for patterns and meaning, especially in emotionally charged or memorable situations. When we remember a premonition that came true, we tend to forget or ignore the many times our feelings did not predict anything. The confirmation of a few coincidences reinforces the false belief, even though it’s statistically unfounded.
This is different from the other options:
- Representative heuristic refers to judging the likelihood of something based on how closely it resembles a prototype (e.g., thinking someone who is quiet and bookish is more likely to be a librarian than a salesperson).
- Availability heuristic involves estimating the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind (e.g., fearing plane crashes because of vivid news reports, even though they’re rare).
- Overconfidence phenomenon is the tendency to be more confident in our judgments and beliefs than is objectively justified (e.g., overestimating how much we know or how accurate our predictions are).
Illusory correlations often contribute to superstitions, stereotypes, and pseudoscientific beliefs. For example, someone might believe that wearing a “lucky” shirt causes them to win games because of a few coincidental wins, while ignoring all the losses.
Understanding this bias helps us avoid making decisions or holding beliefs based on faulty connections, encouraging a more rational, evidence-based view of the world.